← SGCCC Phantom Monarchs season Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at SGCCC Phantom Monarchs season Store Championship
decks
2
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-4-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.2%
avg ELO -6.4 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1408
· median 1408
· range 1384–1433
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1022
Q1 1182
Q3 1321
1433
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 24.6% | -24.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.4% | -8.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
